PPT Day Characteristics

These moves typically occur after 2:30pm Eastern while the market is near a new low or breaking point, with a relatively high VIX.  Another characteristic is a large NYSE Adv/Decl negative ratio.  One that is negative 10:1 going into lunchtime typically assures a weak close.  Ratios of 3:1 negative aren’t what you want. They are easier to manipulate by weak bulls. You want a big scary ratio. It is these negative internals that can clue you into the probability of a PPT push.  A big push on a big negative internal is the tell. To instantaneously swing the market around on these days takes a massive amount of concerted capital.

If you watched the market every day last year you know what this looks like.  Using 5min candles on your favorite index you will see an immediate and massive full body candle, sometimes eclipsing the entire day’s range in minutes.  There is no mistaking this move.  It’s a wide-eyed holy crap moment!  After this massive push the market will typically close near the high of the day.

Here is a 15min chart of the SPY from last March–somewhat similar to today.  This is what a breakout looks like:

The PPT pushes are preceded by doom and gloom breakdowns.  These volume pushes fail to buoy the market after a few days.  In some cases it’s a rinse-wash-repeat move over the course of a few weeks.  Learn to anticipate it, regardless of the mechanics of why the push comes.

Often a panic sell-off precedes a PPT push, which breaks down into orderly selling, which causes another PPT push.  Watch for one this week or next week, possibly mirroring this move from last November:

There’s a similar feel to this month, except we’re missing a second PPT push:

Taking the Trade

The key to a PPT day is entering on the first push of a massive volume breakout.  You have to be prepared to enter in a matter of seconds.  That or have a resting buy/stop order sitting above a resistance area on your favorite stock.  Look for an entry that won’t get hit by a false probe.  During these moves it usually doesn’t matter which of the day trade stocks you pick–they all go up.  Some potential stocks right now are FAS MA FSLR GOOG BIDU ICE CME GS and other big liquidity names.  Trade what you know.

A good risk/reward setup are breakouts from tight consolidation ranges.  If you anticipate the move place a market buy order slightly above the range.  When the order fills put in your max loss stop and then be patient to the close.  Another method is to wait 10 minutes after the fill and then put your daily profit stop in.  If the entry was golden (profit stop doesn’t hit) exit manually near the close. It’s possible to get several months of profit off these extreme moves.

This chart of ABK from last year is a great example.  In anticipation of a PPT breakout a rested buy order above $8.70 was placed.  Going big, say 10,000 shares, a market order is a must.  The fill price isn’t as important as catching the momentum.  There is a saying, “Don’t be a prick over a tick.”

Conclusion

The essence of this strategy is catching a home run with a low risk entry.  Holding into the following day is a personal risk preference.  However, using margin hoping for continuation into the next day is very risky.  Follow through days have been trending down for decades now, and are especially thin today.  Hoping that will happen often eats through the profits on a perfect trade.

What do solar stocks have to do with market manipulation? The following contains a brief overview of some of the factors that influence the price/volume trends we’ve been writing about. We also explore a reason you won’t get this info on CNBC. At SEMICON West, which is one the largest trade shows on the planet, there was not a single US solar wafer or thin film manufacturing company on property. This is a stark lack of showing when 1,121 other companies representing the entire industry were there.

Who Was There?
So where was SunPower. Is it possible they were told/threatened not to come? The other missing big US solar names were FSLR ENER EMC ESLR HOKU WFR and AKNS. Not a single booth representing the United States to do business in. Some of them had a few employees walking around, but no floor space. Here is a list of every PV company exhibiting a product: Photovoltaic Exhibitors at SEMICON West 2008

AMAT was there, but they don’t work on the stuff you dig out of the ground. They make machines. This lack of US attendance is startling when 79% of SEMICON West visitors are involved in product selection and purchasing, and 32% of them were there to talk solar.

What is Holding Solar Back?
This begs the question. Why is solar depressed in the US, and why isn’t Wall Street promoting these companies? There hasn’t been a growth story like this to get excited about for decades. Apparently, it’s politically safer to get excited about ethanol which is a net energy loser and kills people. That is if statistics on starvation linked ethanol deaths ever do surface.

From The Times UK

The rush towards biofuels is threatening world food production and the lives of billions of people, the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser said yesterday.

“It’s very hard to imagine how we can see the world growing enough crops to produce renewable energy and at the same time meet the enormous demand for food.”

Josette Sheeran, executive director of the World Food Programme, told the European Parliament in Brussels yesterday: “The shift to biofuels production has diverted lands out of the food chain. Food prices such as palm oil in Africa are now set at fuel prices. It may be a bonanza for farmers – I hope it is true – but in the short term, the world’s poorest are hit hard.”

The amount of energy used to commercially produce food is insane. From the mining of potash, to the diesel to plow, then ship, then package, then distribute it. So one of the politically viable solutions therefore is to increase this ratio! The saying goes, “What’s good for Big Oil…”

Who Owns the World? [numbers updated Jan 2009]
This issue is huge and will give us years of information to chew through. However, here is a really fascinating aspect of one of the roadblocks to cheap unlimited energy, Washington, D.C. industry lobbying.

$114,058,794 Electric Utilities are the #3 spender for 2008
$ 94,531,539 Oil & Gas are the #4 spender for 2008

Last year GE spent $15,038,000 in Washington. Over the last 10 years they spent $178M furthering their agenda on Capitol Hill, which makes them the largest single corporate lobbying entity. Guess why wind is so politically popular compared to overseas solar manufacturing! By the way, that’s a GE turbine in that thing. One theory aligns the United States and the military-industrial complex with the attitude of, “We own the world.” GE used to say, “We bring good things to life.” Close enough for government work. If they can’t own it what are the chances of seeing it grow and develop? Think about their nightmare of a home owner going to Home Depot to buy a Do-It-Yourself Home Solar kit.

Then there are the utility companies that burn coal. What country owns the largest coal reserves in the world? Even kids know this stuff. Yes, it’s the United States. Here is another wild energy dichotomy. Compare the explosive 2008 bull market in coal stocks to solar stocks. Keep in mind coal is not a growth sector.

Companies like ANR had a PE of 52 at the peak of the coal trade. The math doesn’t quite add up. Especially when you consider the coal industry is primarily mining in the same areas they used 150 years ago. Can a 150 year old industry be a growth industry? Don’t mistake demand for growth.

So how is Big Oil going to charge the public for unlimited energy unless they own it?

From The New York Times on Duke Energy’s CEO Jim Rogers

Solar is currently too expensive to make economic sense, according to Rogers, because the cost to put panels on a roof is greater than what a household would save on electricity. But what if Duke bought panels en masse, driving the price down, and installed them itself — free?

“So we have 500,000 solar units on the roofs of our customers,” he said. “We install them, we maintain them and we dispatch them, just like it was a power plant!” He did some quick math: he could get maybe 1,000 megawatts out of that system, enough to permanently shutter one of the company’s older power plants. He shot me a toothy grin.

Even in this era of green evangelism, Rogers is a genuine anomaly. As the head of Duke Energy, with its dozens of coal-burning electric plants scattered around the Midwest and the Carolinas, he represents one of the country’s biggest sources of greenhouse gases.

What they call “green evangelism” is still a system of control with a monthly debt obligation, also known as ownership. They own you.

Do Solar Companies Talk?
This attitude of US corporate ownership was confirmed at SEMICON West. A high profile executive of a large solar company was offended when asked a seemingly innocuous question. He is of Chinese ancestry and was asked if he felt Wall Street has an agenda against Chinese companies.

Anyone who watches CNBC (owned by GE) can see this behavior. However, the trigger words “East/West” were used. This immediately caused a stunning emotional reactionary response. He made it clear that they are not a Chinese company, but an international corporation legally no different than US corporations. The exec was gracious and diplomatic in resolving his anger, but the answer was more than obvious. Yes, there is major US financial leverage being used against international solar companies and they are frustrated by it.

Grow Baby Grow!
Recent estimates project the global solar photovoltaic (PV) market to grow from US$13 billion, to over $40 billion in 2012, when electricity produced by PV technology will reach grid parity in many parts of the world. The chip makers were doing 17% growth in the boom years.

So there were companies like Intel doing 17%. Today companies like LDK Solar are doing 50% year-over-year growth. LDK had the prime spot at SEMICON West. They were right in front at the main entrance with a HUGE overhead picture of the new factory site.

A comparison could be made between LDK and Intel of the early 90′s. That will have to be another article, but LDK on their own merits is growing at an incredible pace. Not just growing, but immediately accretive and profitable. They are ramping to be the world’s largest solar company by every metric. Their mid-2009 capacity is projected at 2.3GW. This should put them in the number three spot.

A brilliant investor who runs Fund My Mutual Fund broke down the recent fundamentals:

Sources:
SEMICON West 2008 Highlights
http://www.opensecrets.org/lobby/top.php?showYear=2008&indexType=s

Semiconductor Growth Is Slowing
by Dan Bloom
July 12, 2006

Rush for biofuels threatens starvation on a global scale
TimesOnline
March 7, 2008

A Green Coal Baron?
by Clive Thompson
June 22, 2008
http://a330.g.akamai.net/7/330/2540/20080725161031/www.semiconductor.net/articles/blog/1590000359/20080717/AMATSolar1.jpg

http://investor.ldksolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=196973&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1240475&highlight=