I do not pretend to know what many ignorant men are sure of. -Clarence Darrow

This is the biggest block in our series on market manipulation.  We’re working toward an answer.  How do international banks manipulate the markets to service the U.S. war debt?  Make no mistake about the crash on Thursday.  That was no “fat finger” trader or an “M” accidentally being a “B” nonsense.  Unless you hear “international banks” and “leverage” and “unwind” in the same sentence, it’s not a valid explanation.  It takes hundreds of billions to make a wave in the equities market like that.  It was the fastest point drop in the history of the market.  Only something an international bank is capable of.  The rest of us are just trying not to drown in their wake.

How to Lose Money Betting the Market Will Crash on the Day it Crashes

If George Carlin could have designed an ETF it would be FAZ.  Maybe even with the same name.  It’s an ultra bear’s dream come true.  A way to profit as America circles the drain with financial Armageddon banker zombies roaming the streets while cities burn.  FAZ is a stock that can make +15% while the banks crash -5%.  You’d think it was the perfect stock to trade last Thursday.  It’s one of the fewer and fewer ways a retail trader can profit during a market crash.  There’s a catch.  The crash locked out anyone trying to exit with profit. By the end of the day, if you bought FAZ right before the crash, you actually had a loss.

How could this happen?  NASDAQ is the market maker for retail brokers in FAZ.  They control the bid/ask and retail orders go through them.  The problem is NASDAQ froze all exits on FAZ until the market closed.  They canceled trading in 256 names.  What is suspect is FAZ, and many other frozen stocks, are not on that list. The only way to exit FAZ was to sell in the after hours market on Thursday or wait for Friday’s open.  Essentially, Thursday’s crash created a no-bid market for FAZ and many other stocks.  How do you get zero bids on a stock that trades 165M shares in a day?

Max Keiser, the man who invented high frequency trading (HFT) source code, explains:

Remove all the buy orders that you control (since HFT traffic is 70% of the order flow, if you simply pull your HFT buy orders, you remove a huge chunk of the market – in a heartbeat – leaving a sudden price vacuum). If you wanted to scare congress to vote the way you wanted them to vote – a congress that is directly invested in stocks trading on the exchange and ETF’s tied to the prices on the exchange – just pull your buys. When they do what you want them to do–replace your buys. If you want to make the market go up–pull your sell orders. It works both ways. (It’s all detailed in my Virtual Specialist Technology patent–how to make markets in an ‘infinite inventory environment.’) (Huffington Post)

Keiser is describing a perpetual cash machine for market manipulators.  We’ll cover that later in this story.  Another method to lockout FAZ is this:

• A swap blows up
• The counterparty exposed to the swap blows up
• All swaps in that tranche are frozen
• The market crashes
• ETFs trading those swaps are locked out

The over-the-counter derivatives market could be a contributing reason why FAZ wouldn’t sell on Thursday.  Most ETFs are derivative products that mimic an index, which happen to trade on stock exchanges.  So you have an unregulated OTC instrument moonlighting on a regulated exchange.  If a swap blows up (as the Euro made a new low) it would logically effect ETFs.  Virtually none of the stock ETFs trade in equities.  They don’t own baskets of stocks.  They own baskets in swaps and futures contracts.

Fidelity has been marketing some 20 ETFs which their clients can trade for “free.”  How many of their clients got bent over a barrel this week?  The fine print is full of escape clauses.  These things aren’t insured and there’s no recourse if the exchange or the product fails.

Euro and Swaps

We’re facing a perfect storm loss/loss scenario from hedging activity.  It’s the same AIG shell game, just played on a different street corner that no one is watching.  It took people nearly a year to catchup and understand what subprime mortgage blow ups were doing.  Last week gave us a new bomb ripple in the subbasement of international banks.

Eurodollars are deposits denominated in U.S. dollars at banks outside the United States, and thus are not under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve. Consequently, such deposits are subject to much less regulation than similar deposits within the U.S., allowing for higher margins.

The Eurodollar futures contract refers to the financial futures contract based upon these deposits, traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in Chicago. Eurodollar futures are a way for companies and banks to lock in an interest rate today, for money it intends to borrow or lend in the future.  Each CME Eurodollar futures contract has a notional or “face value” of $1,000,000, though the leverage used in futures allows one contract to be traded with a margin of about one thousand dollars. Trading in Eurodollar futures is extensive, and the market for them tends to be very liquid. The prices of Eurodollars are quite responsive to FED Policy, inflation, and economic indicators.

CME Eurodollar futures prices are determined by the market’s forecast of the 3-month USD LIBOR interest rate expected to prevail on the settlement date. The settlement price of a contract is defined to be 100.00 minus the official British Bankers Association fixing of 3-month LIBOR on the contract settlement date. For example, if 3-month LIBOR sets at 5.00% on the contract settlement date, the contract settles at a price of 95.00. (source)

On Thursday LIBOR hit  0.373% the highest since last August.  On Friday it hit 0.428% while the Euro crashed to a 14-month low against the dollar.  The gigantic interest rate swap market is based on LIBOR.  When the spread jumps 14% overnight someone is taking a massive hit. This concept is to today’s market what subprime was to the crash in 2008.  Let’s explore why derivatives are so important.

As the unregulated derivatives market grew the money that was in equities left for greener pastures.  Basically, the U.S. stock market is like the post-apocalyptic landscape in the movie Terminator.  It’s wounded, illiquid, and controlled by Skynet’s hunter-killer HFT drones who prowl for resistance money.  On Thursday the computers drove the market into a no-bid situation that blew out tons of retail money.  In the vacuum of the program trading nuclear blast Skynet computers, doing one million orders per second, jumped into the void making billions of dollars at our expense.

Swap Market Size

The European derivatives market is a complex mass that’s difficult to understand.  This is precisely why you never get an explanation about it from the media–until it’s too late.  Let’s go through some basics.  This is the largest cash market in the world.  It is growing exponentially as European governments fall. And it can take the U.S. equities market down with shock and awe.

NYSE Euronext European derivatives products ADV in April 2010  increased 51.5% compared to April 2009

NYSE Euronext U.S. cash products handled ADV in April 2010 decreased 26.6% compared to April 2009.  Year-to-date, U.S. cash products handled was down 34.3% from prior year levels.

NYSE Euronext U.S. matched exchange-traded products decreased 42.8% compared to April 2009.   Year-to-date, NYSE Euronext U.S. matched exchange-traded products was 45.9% below prior year levels. (source)

Money is flowing out of U.S. equities and ETFs and into European interest rate swaps.  It’s now the biggest game in town.  The following graph shows who the main players are in OTC derivatives, which are mainly interest rate, commodity, and currency swaps.

Large firms like Goldman Sachs are taking on more risk while smaller firms are cutting back.  Right now 41% of all swaps are backed by $USD.  This is a massive market that can react violently to ripples in interest rates.

The global equities markets are currently worth $45T.  Roughly half the value prior to the 2008 crash. That money did not come back. Compare that to amounts outstanding of OTC single-currency interest rate derivatives by currency (source):

Notional amounts outstanding
Euro $160,646B
US dollar $154,167B

Gross market values
Euro $6,255B
US dollar $6,473B

2009 Interest rate futures
N. America $600T
Europe $550T

The Number of Collateral Agreements in use in the OTC derivative market grew 14 percent over the past year. (source)

What are Swaps

Essentially, it’s the revamped bond market from the ’80s.  Instead of being long Euro bonds the banks turn them into insurance contracts at reduced cost and risk.  If you can borrow Euros cheaply and think the Euro is going up, and LIBOR will stay low, you sell that interest rate swap, or currency futures swap, or options swap, or you name it.  There’s dozens and dozens of ways to game the market with swaps.

In an interest rate swap, each counterparty  agrees to pay either a fixed or floating rate denominated in a particular currency to the other counterparty. The fixed or floating rate is multiplied by a notional principal amount (say, USD 1 million). This notional amount is generally not exchanged between counterparties, but is used only for calculating the size of cashflows to be exchanged.

The most common interest rate swap is one where one counterparty A pays a fixed rate (the swap rate) to counterparty B, while receiving a floating rate (usually pegged to a reference rate such as LIBOR).

At the point of initiation of the swap, the swap is priced so that it has a net present value of zero. If one party wants to pay 50 bps above the par swap rate, the other party has to pay approximately 50 bps over LIBOR to compensate for this.

The interest rate swap market is closely linked to the Eurodollar futures market which trades at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.  (source)

How LIBOR is Created

Each cash desk in a contributor bank has a Thomson Reuters application installed. Each morning between 11.00 and 11.20 [London time] an individual at each bank, typically the currency dealer, takes their own rates for the day and inputs them into this, which links directly to the fixings team at Thomson Reuters.  Banks cannot see each others’ rates as they submit, only after final publication.

This was first developed in the 1980s as demand grew for an accurate measure of the real rate at which banks would lend money to each other. This became increasingly important as London’s status grew as an international financial centre. More than 20 per cent of all international bank lending and more than 30 per cent of all foreign exchange transactions now take place in London. (source)

Greek Netting

There’s tons of white papers presented to the Fed’s board of directors (prior to 2008) that say risk in swaps is low because it’s a new market and nothing has blown up yet.  This was an interesting statement:

The interest swap market has been increasingly taking on a benchmark role in the broader fixed income market that had previously virtually been the exclusive domain of U.S. Treasury debt securities. Given its greater prominence for the financial markets as a whole, the question of assessing the ability of the swaps market to continue to function without major impediments–such as heightened concerns about counterparty credit risk–when other (less liquid) markets are disrupted gains special significance. (source)

Here’s where Greece comes in.  It’s been on the verge of bankruptcy for two years, but was able to maintain a reasonable credit rating until last week.  Much of the swap market is built on the assumption of equal liquidity.  A practice called “netting” is used to mitigate risk.

Netting: Rather than exchanging fixed and floating payments on the dates specied in the swap contract, the values of the two payments are netted, and only the party with a net amount due transfers funds to its counterparty. (source)

This is good in theory, but the reality is most firms rehypothecate.  Basically they take all the money that netting is supposed to protect and often bet it against that same contract as a hedge. Division A does one thing and Division B bets against it, and neither knows.  Such was the case with AIG blowing up.  In the case of Goldman Sachs, they know and decide to commit fraud anyway.

Rehypothecate:  Involves the re-use of securities delivered. A dealer receiving securities as collateral may re-use the same security, to collateralize its own exposure with its counterparties for example. In the case of cash collateral, rehypothecation involves either using the cash received as collateral to buy investment securities, or to lend on to others, or to collateralize other derivatives exposures.

Forty-four percent of all respondents and 93 percent of large dealers report rehypothecating collateral.  Over 80 percent of collateral is in the form of cash deposits. (source)

Counterparties depend on the solvency of each other.  That solvency is put into question when the cash deposits are used to place more bets.  Risk is layered on more risk.  Then when a credit rating is dropped it triggers termination clauses.  This creates a run on the banks.  This happened in the mortgage backed securities market a couple years ago.  It’s a perfect example.

What Blow Ups Sound Like

One of the best authors on bond market blow ups is Michael Lewis.  He just wrote a great article in Vanity Fair about Michael Burry, the first man to short subprime.   Here’s an excerpt.

On June 14, 2007  the pair of subprime-mortgage-bond hedge funds effectively owned by Bear Stearns were in freefall. In the ensuing two weeks, the publicly traded index of triple-B-rated subprime-mortgage bonds fell by nearly 20 percent.

Just then Goldman Sachs appeared to Burry to be experiencing a nervous breakdown. His biggest positions were with Goldman, and Goldman was newly unable, or unwilling, to determine the value of those positions, and so could not say how much collateral should be shifted back and forth. On Friday, June 15, Burry’s Goldman Sachs saleswoman, Veronica Grinstein, vanished. He called and e-mailed her, but she didn’t respond until late the following Monday—to tell him that she was “out for the day.”

“This is a recurrent theme whenever the market moves our way,” wrote Burry. “People get sick, people are off for unspecified reasons.”

On June 20, Grinstein finally returned to tell him that Goldman Sachs had experienced “systems failure.”

That was funny, Burry replied, because Morgan Stanley had said more or less the same thing. And his salesman at Bank of America claimed they’d had a “power outage.”

“I viewed these ‘systems problems’ as excuses for buying time to sort out a mess behind the scenes,” he said. The Goldman saleswoman made a weak effort to claim that, even as the index of subprime-mortgage bonds collapsed, the market for insuring them hadn’t budged.

What this Means

See the parallels here?  Subprime bonds fell 20% creating a squeeze on credit.  We have LIBOR rising which is putting a squeeze on–basically everything. Instead of power outages we have lockouts and canceled orders.  The same ridiculous excuses are given to obscure reality.  Fat fingers with Bs and Ms?  Thursday’s crash is wake up call for complacency.  However, it’s being sold as an opportunity for dip buying.

The stock market is a perpetual cash machine for international banks (IBs).  It’s a game invented in the 1700s by London stock manipulators (see story).   Make the market go parabolic, then crash it to pay off war debt and protect Treasuries.  Dr. Ellen Brown has one of the best explanations for what’s going on:

The Wall Street Ponzi Scheme

The Ponzi scheme that has gone bad is not just another misguided investment strategy. It is at the very heart of the banking business, the thing that has propped it up over the course of three centuries. A Ponzi scheme is a form of pyramid scheme in which new investors must continually be sucked in at the bottom to support the investors at the top. In this case, new borrowers must continually be sucked in to support the creditors at the top.

The Wall Street Ponzi scheme is built on “fractional reserve” lending, which allows banks to create “credit” (or “debt”) with accounting entries. Banks are now allowed to lend from 10 to 30 times their “reserves,” essentially counterfeiting the money they lend. Over 97 percent of the U.S. money supply (M3) has been created by banks in this way.

The problem is that banks create only the principal and not the interest necessary to pay back their loans, so new borrowers must continually be found to take out new loans just to create enough “money” (or “credit”) to service the old loans composing the money supply. The scramble to find new debtors has now gone on for over 300 years – ever since the founding of the Bank of England in 1694 – until the whole world has become mired in debt to the bankers’ private money monopoly. The Ponzi scheme has finally reached its mathematical limits: we are “all borrowed up.” (source)

First time home buyer credits are now expired.  The Fed can’t lend money for free indefinitely.  Soon the U.S. will be forced to raise cash.  The Fed will have to raise the prime rate and it will stress the system.  Unless prime dealers (IBs) unload their leverage without tanking the market.  This is the cornerstone.  Banks are levered up on low interest rates. Those swap positions have to unwind without creating cascading sell-offs.
Much of the recent rally was short covering.  New highs on very low volume.  That’s not new money buying up the market.  We know European derivatives volume is up 50% and U.S. stocks and ETFs are down 50%.  The 2010 rally was a short squeeze used to cover real distribution by large banks.  They have to unwind before interest rates are raised.

Think GLD is Safe?

There’s one last concept that is important in this pyramid.  People invested in GLD/SLV in lieu of owning the real metal are directly exposed to blow ups in the OTC derivatives market.  Another no-bid scenario like Thursday could wreak havoc in commodity ETFs.  This is a partial list of the major ETFs that were locked out:

Earlier Sunday, Nasdaq OMX announced it has canceled trades made Thursday in 12 additional stocks in which prices were at least 60% above the prior number, or at least 60% less than the earlier price. The additional names mostly included exchange-traded funds and notes, following estimates of 4,000 canceled trades across nearly 300 symbols previously announced. (MarketWatch)

The largest gold ETF is GLD with their vaults sitting in London.  It’s run by a mining consortium, backed by HSBC London, and Bank of NY Mellon as trustee.  Between 1999 and 2002 Gordon Brown sold 60% of the UK’s gold reserves at $275 an ounce.  The year he sold that final ounce the World Gold Council formed. It’s difficult to find out exactly who they are.  It reads like the early history of the Council on Foreign Relations.

So GLD is sponsored by World Gold Trust Services, LLC, or WGTS, which is wholly-owned by the World Gold Council, or WGC, a not-for-profit association registered under Swiss law. The Sponsor is a Delaware limited liability company and was formed on July 17, 2002.  Two years later they create GLD investment trust, formed on November 12, 2004.  The closing price on GLD that year was $44/shr.

The Trust Indenture was amended on November 26, 2007 to reflect the transfer of the listing of the Shares to NYSE Arca.  The close that year was $83.  Today it’s at $118 with a gain of 275% in six years.  In the same period, since Gordon Brown sold his last ounce, gold has gained 440%.

Holdings of the world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), jumped nearly 20 tons to a record 1,185.787 tons on Thursday. Year to date, however, (GLD) holdings has gained just 50 tons. (Reuters)

They sucker retail investors by marketing GLD as the paper equivalent of owning real gold.  This is a misconception held by gold/silver ETF owners. In GLD you need to own $11.8M in shares to convert the certificates into deliverable gold.  With SLV the number is $850k. The primary banks holding GLD/SLV use it for collateral to short COMEX futures. How many GLD owners know their position is bet against them in a leveraged market? Their $1 in GLD can turn into $15 COMEX shorts suppressing the price of gold.

The indisputable conclusion is that these three banks dominated the market to the extent they represented two thirds of the entire net short position of the commercials and as such they controlled the price of gold which is illegal…

When the derivative positions of the banks are examined it becomes clear that JPMorgan Chase and HSBC together dominate the market. In 2008 they held close to 100% of the entire bank derivatives market in gold and precious metals.  -Adrian Douglas

How JPM Crashed Silver

The manipulation of SLV is more egregious, due to a smaller market, and primarily done by JP Morgan.  The DoJ is in active anti-trust investigation of JPM right now, which they named publicly (source).  JPM has a reported $70T in silver derivatives shorting their own product (SLV) which has a value of $5.2B. During the Bear Sterns take down JP Morgan bought control of Bear’s silver positions. Silver was nearing $21/oz. and about to bankrupt Bear with their short position.

Andrew McGuire, an independent London silver trader, became a whistleblower on silver manipulation.  In March, just prior to a CFTC hearing on gold/silver position limits, he and his wife were victims to a hit and run driver in a London shopping district.  They survived and the perp was caught after a high speed chase.  Testimony was given of this being an assassination attempt. Few details have been published.

McGuire wrote numerous emails to the CFTC warning and explaining how gold/silver manipulation worked during the February low.  He had evidence that JPM and HSBC were driving out long call option holders (source).  The above chart shows a 20% drop in SLV in the two weeks during McGuire’s warnings.  Here is an excerpt:

Thought it may be helpful to your investigation if I gave you the heads up for a manipulative event signaled for Friday, 5th Feb. The non-farm payrolls number will be announced at 8.30 ET. There will be one of two scenarios occurring, and both will result in silver (and gold) being taken down with a wave of short selling designed to take out obvious support levels and trip stops below. While I will no doubt be able to profit from this upcoming trade, it is an example of just how easy it is to manipulate a market if a concentrated position is allowed by a very small group of traders.

Scenario 1. The news is bad (employment is worse). This will have a bullish effect on gold and silver as the U.S. dollar weakens and the precious metals draw bids, spiking them higher. This will be sold into within a very short time (1-5 mins) with thousands of new short contracts being added, overcoming any new bids and spiking the precious metals down hard, targeting key technical support levels.

Scenario 2. The news is good (employment is better than expected). This will result in a massive short position being instigated almost immediately with no move up. This will not initially be liquidation of long positions but will result in stops being triggered, again targeting key support levels.

Both scenarios will spell an attempt by the two main short holders to illegally drive the market down and reap very large profits. Locals such as myself will be “invited” on board, which will further add downward pressure.

The question I would expect you might ask is: Who is behind the sudden selling and is it the entity/entities holding a concentrated position? How is it possible for me to know what will occur days before it will happen?

Only if a market is manipulated could this possibly occur.

I would ask you watch the “market depth” live as this event occurs and tag who instigates the move. This would surly help you to pose questions to the parties involved.

This kind of “not-for-profit selling” will end badly and risks the integrity of the COMEX and OTC markets.

I am aware that physical buyers in large size are awaiting this event to scoop up as much “discounted” gold and silver as possible. These are sophisticated entities, mainly foreign, who know how to play the short sellers and turn this paper gold into real delivered physical.

Given that the OTC market (where a lot of the selling occurs) runs on a fractional reserve basis and is not backed up by 1-1 physical gold, this leveraged short selling, where ownership of each ounce of gold has multi claims, poses a very large risk. (source)

JP Morgan controls 80% of the world’s gold and precious metals derivatives.  Through monopoly control of the market they took silver under $15/oz.  JPM is the custodian for SLV, the silver exchange-traded fund.  People who own shares in SLV think they own certificates representing silver for delivery.  This has been proven to be a fraud.  JPM does not have the actual silver deposits for delivery.  What they have is $70T in silver derivatives.  Nothing real is exchanged.  At one point, COMEX silver short contracts totaled twenty times the value of the world’s entire silver supply. (source)

Conclusion

Hopefully this lengthy article placed some bricks in alignment.  Bricks that form the foundation of the ongoing Wall Street pyramid scheme.  We learned that the U.S. stock market is illiquid and run by computers that can crash it faster and farther than ever.  We learned that ETFs designed to profit from those crashes don’t work.  They don’t work because they’re based on interest rates products so massive the slightest spike causes market instability.  We also learned that gold and silver products, used for such protection, are manipulated by the very same banks selling them.

There are two main power structures in the U.S.  The formal power resting in D.C. and the real power resting in NYC.  Most people are unaware of how the real power structure works.  We’re talking about shadow banking, the Council on Foreign Relations, old money families, corporations profiting off terrorism, secret global meetings, etc.  Policies and programs designed to squeeze credit and game the system in every way imaginable.

It is a mistake to look to the formal power structure for solutions.  Fundamental problems can never be resolved in that system.  It’s a total illusion to depend on a corrupt political system to solve problems it is complicit in creating. The solution is to attack the real power structure.  Their power can be marginalized.  The more people educate themselves and their friends the less that power is held over us.

Illegal manipulation of capital markets is done in concert with central banks to suppress precious metals, which supports a “strong” dollar.  It’s part of the larger matrix of control in Western finance.  A staggering amount of arbitrage, naked shorts, and other cross trades are designed to support the velocity of credit.  When that velocity nearly stopped in 2008, and credit dealers issued margin calls, it brought the financial system to the edge.

We are living with the same power structure America fought for independence against.  Sam Adams, John Hancock, and much of the Continental Congress were at times violently opposed to New York stock jobbers, the Crown’s money influence, and international bankers.  They did everything they could to insure fellow citizens would not be owned by international banks.  How would they respond to, “We’re all borrowed up.”

I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men. -Sir Isaac Newton

There are five zombie banks that control between 20%-40% of NYSE daily volume. It started earlier this year with Citigroup and Bank of America. They equaled 10% of NYSE total daily volume. Now the trend in High Frequency Trading (HFT) is on the rise. This begs several questions. If this is a healthy bull market, why are just five stocks running the exchange? Is it possible the bailout money is being funneled into just a few stocks? To get a really good answer we’re going to visit London England in the year 1720. Let’s explore how history is repeating itself with the new South Sea Bubble. The goal by the end of this article is to draw connections between the greatest financial bubble of all time and what’s happening today. Hopefully it will be so obvious you’ll feel sick.

One Chart to Rule Them All

There’s actually 315 years of stock market data available. People think DOW 4,000 is impossible, but look at this 315 year chart and how juicy DOW 1,000 is.

Here’s the theory. The country has nearly run out of credit forming the end of a Grand Supercycle. The money issue is obvious with state budget problems. So what is the most expedient way to generate credit in a corrupt system? A Ponzi scheme. Make it really big and complicated so no one can figure it out in time.

Here are some of the basics. The global financial markets, which are primarily run by New York banks, are being propped up by the Federal Reserve selling Treasuries. The money that is placed in Treasuries is then built out with leverage and funneled into the most wounded names in the banking system. These names get pumped up to create a cash machine that is used to cover debts of the United States of America. This is just a basic model, but understanding how this works will open windows into our corrupt financial system. A system designed to tax and steal without our knowledge.

Look at the stocks moving the market:

Volume continues to be concentrated in just a few names. Today, in a universe of over 5,000 stocks in the U.S. equity market, only 4 stocks contributed 20% of the volume.

Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) traded a total of 2.041 billion shares. Overall volume in the U.S equity market was only 10 billion shares. -Joseph Saluzzi

There is some variation to which names lead volume for the week. The PPT cash machine cycles through several names during the month. Read Themis Trading’s white paper, Toxic Equity Trading Order Flow on Wall Street: The Real Force Behind the Explosion in Volume and Volatility. This gives a concise explanation for current market mechanics. Here’s a section most of us don’t think about:

High frequency trading strategies have become a stealth tax on retail and institutional investors. While stock prices will probably go where they would have gone anyway, toxic trading takes money from real investors and gives it to the high frequency trader who has the best computer. The exchanges, ECNs and high frequency traders are slowly bleeding investors, causing their transaction costs to rise, and the investors don’t even know it.

What HFT Looks Like

The main HFT stocks are C BAC FNM FRE AIG and CIT. During Fed POMO days, where they’ve recently been injecting $30B into the market on a weekly basis, these names will cycle through large cash inflows. This is the new PPT vehicle. Check out the chart of AIG during a heavy week where $197B in Treasuries were on auction.

Note the blue shaded area on the chart. This is classic HFT or program trading where a stock churns shares within a very small range. Liquidity rebates are also happening where dealers like Goldman Sachs earn a quarter penny on every share traded. Everyone gaming the stock makes out. Shareholders looking for organic growth get chopped to pieces. It’s a giant cash machine and the stock goes nowhere, much like the S&P 500 intraday.

Then something happens… The PPT shows up. This move in AIG is a classic PPT push where a massive amount of capital is pumped in during the last hour of the market. HFT algorithms can see it coming and get out of the way. Here’s part of the reason why these moves come at the end of the day:

The directives of the FOMC are carried out in the context of two week maintenance periods. The Manager of the System Open Market Account is charged with achieving those objectives via the daily operations. (source)

Step One (08:30am):

• gather information, macroeconomic news
• desk telephones primary government security dealers
• large banks inform the desk about their reserve needs
• NY Fed gather data to provide forecasts of reserves

Step Two (10:30am):

• call to the Treasury concerning its forecast of its balance for the day

Step Three:

• formulate the actions for the day
• forecasts from Treasury, NY Fed, and Fed BoG combined
• interventions are formulated
• trading plan is formulated

Step Four (11:15am):

• conference call links…
• Manager (and staff)
• Director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at Fed BoG
• a Federal Reserve Bank president who sits on FOMC
• proposed actions for the day are detailed

Step Five (11:40am)

• desk traders contact primary dealers and execute day’s program

See our story Anticipating PPT Days for ideas on what these moves look like and how to trade them. This same move was seen in ABK AIG CIT FRE FNM during the last couple weeks. It is reminiscent of the moves seen prior to the September 2008 market crash. It used to be a safe assumption to put your money where the government puts theirs. Now that money disappears, in more ways than one.

Myth of Savings Accounts

Citibank (and many others) have a program called Deposit Reclassification. This is a relatively new financial scheme you won’t find on Wikipedia. It was invented for credit unions and banks to put dead money to use. That dead money comes from your savings accounts.

For accounting purposes, all Citibank consumer checking accounts consist of two sub-accounts; a transaction sub-account to which all financial transactions are posted; and a holding sub-account into which available balances above a pre-set level are transferred daily. (source)

What this means is banks using this program do not have to maintain a 10% deposit reserve on cash in savings accounts. So how do they guarantee cash that isn’t there? Banks use this sub-account loophole to circumvent all retail deposit reserve requirements. Under normal Federal Reserve System rules banks can leverage $100 in deposits into $1,000 of credit based on a 10% reserve. This is virtually free money for them. The more deposits they have the more credit they can create out of thin air.

With a 0% actual reserve–who knows? This nullifies what the FDIC says about the safety of the banking system and deposits. What deposits? Check out this presentation by the New Jersey League of Community Bankers on how it’s done.

Note that in July 2008, the banking system’s vault cash EXCEEDED both required and total reserves. [Vault cash is the physical banknotes that banks keep on hand to meet withdrawals; the vast majority of dollars exists in the form of electrons, and only a tiny sliver is metal coinage.] Now, in July 2009, the required reserves and vault cash have been relatively unchanged.

Over the same period, the monetary base has almost doubled from $847 billion to $1,681 billion while reserves grew by about the same amount, from a scant $45 billion to $803 billion. Where did this money come from? It is likely just FED “liquidity” or newly created currency. We would need to audit the FED to really be sure, but the timing and amount coincides with the Banker Bailout of October 2008. (source: Jake Towne for Congress)

Software also exists that allows banks to move money on a whim. There’s SWIFT that nearly everyone uses and fi-linx for Deposit Reclassification. These systems run a, “Now you see it. Now you don’t!” form of financial engineering. They can move money undetected in and out of accounts. One day the bank will have 0.6% cash on reserve, and the next they exceed the Fed 10% requirement. This is part of the reason bankers do not want the Fed to be audited. It’s also part of the reason we’re seeing enormous credit injections.

Banks and Bubbles

Current HFT names could be a modern version of the South Sea Company. In 1720 Britain had the equivalent of roughly $2T in debt and was nearly bankrupt. The South Sea Company was used to service that debt. Roll all of the debt into private stock, dupe everyone and their grandmothers into buying it, then sell for a profit. The public gets left holding the bag. Sound familiar?

A senior Bank of England official today compared the banking system over the last 20 years to the South Sea bubble of the early 18th century and said bankers had merely “resorted to the roulette wheel” to keep up with each other. (Guardian UK)

The South Sea Bubble was an enormous scam conceived after a costly war where Spain and France tried to control all of Europe. The stock became a vehicle for Britain to offloaded their war debt upon a naive investing public. Even Isaac Newton got soaked speculating in this stock. The South Sea Company was a Ponzi scheme. They were initially slave traders with one boat that did one trip a year. They never turned a legitimate profit. It is the original event that coined the term “bubble.”

Here’s some more good stuff from Ashley Seager at the guardian.co.uk:

The Bank’s executive director for financial stability, Andy Haldane, said in a speech in Chicago that having been stable over much of the 20th century, returns in the banking system relative to the wider stockmarket shot up after 1986 until 2006.

“Banking became the goose laying the golden eggs. There is no period in recent UK financial history which bears comparison,” he said. He said bankers and policymakers became seduced by the excess returns available: “Banks appeared to have discovered a money machine, albeit one whose workings were sometimes impossible to understand.

“One of the South Sea stocks was memorably ‘a company for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is’. Banking became the 21st-century equivalent.”

“For a number of diseases, 20% of the population account for around 80% of the disease spread. The present financial epidemic has broadly mirrored those dynamics,” he said, adding that the failure of a core set of large, interconnected institutions such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and AIG contributed disproportionately to the spread of financial panic.

How the South Sea Company Operated

Keep the Fed pumped AIG chart in mind while reading the following. Excerpts from Harvard Magazine’s “The Damn’d South Sea” by Christopher Reed:

On January 1, 1720, the price of a share of South Sea stock stood at £128. On June 24 it hit £1,050. In September came the crash. By December the stock had returned to £128. Thousands declared themselves ruined. Banks could not collect loans on inflated stock and failed. Specie was in short supply. Work stopped on half-built homes. Investigations and revenge ensued, and a long struggle to restore stability.

Sir Isaac Newton, scientist, master of the mint, and a certifiably rational man…sold his £7,000 of stock in April for a profit of 100 percent. But something induced him to reenter the market at the top, and he lost £20,000. [roughly £3 million today]

To put these sums in perspective, Carswell points out that a middle-class family could live very comfortably at the time on £200 a year.

The maxim that credit was not wealth unless it rested on a wealth-producing asset had been ignored…,” writes Carswell (former secretary of the British Academy). Greed blinded many, but not all. One unidentified observer saw clearly: “The additional rise of this stock above the true capital will be only imaginary; one added to one, by any rules of vulgar arithmetic, will never make three and a half; consequently, all the fictitious value must be a loss to some persons or other, first or last.

“In order to pay out profits, the South Sea Company needed both to raise more capital and to have the price of its stock moving continuously upward,” writes the economist and MIT professor emeritus Charles P. Kindleberger in his classic work Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (Wiley, third edition, 1996). “And it needed both increases at an accelerating rate, as in a chain letter or a Ponzi scheme.” The company repeatedly raised cash through new issues of stock as its price spiraled upward in the summer of 1720.

“It was clear that the Company could only pay the £7,500,000 to the government if they exchanged South Sea stock for government obligations at prices far above par 100. And, the higher the price of stock at the time of conversion, the greater the profits which would accrue to the Company. In addition to the profits the directors could make by holding South Sea stock were those available through stock manipulation which, in this case, included transactions in non-existent stock. The directors could create and purchase stock at a low price and sell it for an inflated price. It was a foolproof way of making a large fortune and it proved to be an irresistible temptation.

“Carswell employs a hydraulic metaphor to describe the action. The company first created £2 million in new South Sea stock, at £300 a share, and let investors pay for it in installments. Subscribers eagerly bought it up, and the company covertly issued £250,000 more for good measure. Then it announced that its cash position was so strong that it could lend shareholders money on the security of their South Sea stock. The price of the old stock at once rose to £325. The company issued yet more stock and made more loans, again and again.

“So Blunt…had constructed a financial pump,” writes Carswell, “each spurt of stock being accompanied by a draught of cash to suck it up again, leaving the level higher than before.” Success required that the level keep rising.

The South Sea Company was a confection of politics, commerce, and finance. None of its governors or directors had any experience of trade with the New World, but John Blunt, who wrote the charter and was the company’s dominant director, had been a scrivener and then director of the Sword Blade Bank. He and cohorts had a fine understanding of financial manipulation.

The company had the further splendid purpose of relieving the government of its burdensome unsecured public debt–obligations for which Parliament had assigned no funds–which then amounted to £9,000,000. South Sea was organized under the newish joint-stock principle, as a corporation with transferable shares. Holders of the national debt were obliged to exchange their government securities for shares at par in the company. The company could raise working capital–a huge amount of it–by borrowing on the security of the debt due from the government. In addition to its trade monopoly, the company would get an annual payment from the Exchequer of £568,279 10s., or 6 percent of the debt taken over. Stockholders had no promise that they would see any of this as dividends, but who could blame them for thinking that capital gains based on trading profits were a certainty?

Final Thoughts

Fortunately we now have technology that can dig under the surface. What does it mean again when the stock goes up while institutions are bailing?

A quick review of why the South Sea Company stock failed and why it’s like AIG C BAC etc:

1. Government funded stock secured by government debt
2. Stock operates in a monopoly environment
3. Corrupt system with unknown sums and fake shares
4. Depends on an infinite increase in value

What’s amazing is the South Sea Company stayed in operation for almost 100 years. However, the South Sea Bubble ended with purges, the Napoleonic wars, and about sixty years of total misery. It is partly responsible for the U.S. emerging as a new world power though. Here is some parting irony:

Historians wishing to study the company and the era can be awash in source material if they go to the right place–the Kress Library, Harvard Business School’s rare-book collection, housed in Baker Library.

Almost all of it was assembled by Hugh Bancroft, A.B. 1897, A.M. ’98, LL.B. ’01, president of Dow, Jones and Company. After his death in 1933, his wife presented the Bancroft collection to Harvard. It offers true value to scholars wishing to explore a seminal lunacy.

Lastly, Robert Prechter is very vocal about these connections. Check out the July issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist.

Just then the ship took a slight but definite plunge – probably a bulkhead went – and the sea came rolling along up in a wave, over the steel fronted bridge, along the deck below us, washing the people back in a dreadful huddled mass. Those that didn’t disappear under the water right away, instinctively started to clamber up that part of the deck still out of water, and work their way towards the stern, which was rising steadily out of the water as the bow went down. It was a sight that doesn’t bear dwelling on – to stand there, above the wheelhouse, and on our quarters, watching the frantic struggles to climb up the sloping deck, utterly unable to even hold out a helping hand.”
-Charles Lightoller, Second Officer aboard Titanic

Nearly 100 years ago to this very month the unthinkable happened. The “ship that could not be sunk” did so in such a manner it tore the very fabric of reality. Shortcuts were made in the design to maximize profits. These shortcuts were known to the men responsible for the tragedy. Some had warned about the doomed ship, but they could not be heard over the trumpets extolling its historic soundness. Such is the way of man.

Warning Before the Cruise

Trying to figure out what the financial end game is, beyond simple Armageddon, is probably impossible. Right now many conflicting issues don’t make fundamental long-term sense. This is a very complicated maze. However, being lost inside while searching for enlightenment seems a worthy task.

So here we are today, facing such a disaster on a scale unimaginable to people living in 1912. Once again shortcuts known to the men responsible will cause pointless deaths. That’s right, people will die. After Argentina’s 2001 financial crisis a gross majority of the country’s dead were children. Not unlike the Titanic’s third-class kids.

One of the most poignant aspects of the Titanic’s sinking was how the band played on until the final end. This is such a fitting analogy for several reasons. The first is the ship was redesigned down to minimum regulations. This did not leave enough life boats for every man, woman, and child. Secondly, many of her passengers refused to accept the fact the ship was sinking. Keep this in mind as we walk through reports of how badly damaged our financial behemoth is, and how poorly it is regulated (see story).

Much of what you’re about to read is complicated. So complicated it goes beyond the means of this lone author. This story has been sitting for weeks, not knowing exactly how to tell it. Please be patient and sort through it as you may.

Today’s Iceberg

We are on the cusp of another critical seizure in capital flow. An event that might sink the ship. If one of the major banks, or someone like Greece (who is on the verge of bankruptcy), becomes insolvent we’ll see a domino effect of collapses. There was a digital run on the banks last September which nearly froze the credit system. Liquidity is so tight now another run has even greater probability of breaking the system. There is more and more debt chasing fewer and fewer real dollars. Current policy makers believe there is no ceiling to short-term debt creation, baring a collapse. Their formulas tell them the Fed can print money indefinitely, because the Fed is ultimately capitalized. Others are convinced we will learn what the ceiling is before this decade is out.

The Titanic sinking took 2h:40m. The well informed passengers didn’t know for over an hour. Half the critical period was spent in denial. Our financial ship is crippled, but still making power. We all know it has been fundamentally damaged. What we don’t know is the crew jumped ship with the best life boats. Meanwhile we’re up on deck listening to the music play. This is beyond criminal. And most of the unfortunates are stuck down in steerage with no way out. History shows the ship was doomed to sink no matter what was done. If not that year, then another. The lesson learned was how to save the people. Maybe this info will help you save someone.

Where is the Liquidity

One of the logic traps is trying to figure out who is responsible for the system failing. A shark infested waters theory makes it nearly impossible to determine which predator struck first. Did the Fed engineer this. Did prime brokers manipulate the Fed first. Was there collusion to whip every last dime out of debt slaves. Who knows. Let’s look at what we do know, which they thankfully publish in plain sight.

Liquidity is to the capital markets what oil is to an engine. The engine is running out of oil. Even PPT Mobil 1 has performance limits. Here are some of the mechanical issues. Who else is watching the volume seize up on SPY, DIA, and the Qs? These are fundamental stocks with fundamental volume issues.

A lack of liquidity is one of the underlying reasons volume is leaving equity markets.  Liquidity is what gives us an orderly market less prone to price shocks, gap opens, and blatant manipulation.  Margin calls, collateral requirements, risk, and uncertainty has taken much of that liquidity away. Funds have blown up, prime brokers don’t exist in the same space anymore, and capital has made an exodus out of equities into derivatives. Money is moving out of the regulated markets into the unregulated markets. It is lack of regulation on insane amounts of leveraged credit that brought us here.

Thanks to Zero Hedge for their amazing investigative work:

The Capital Markets Liquidity Index subcomponents:

• The Capital Markets US Treasury Bill Index CPMKTLTBI
• The Capital Markets Short Term Large Certificates of Deposit Index CPMKTLCD
• The Capital Markets Commercial Paper Index CPMKTLCP
• The Capital Markets Agency Discount Notes Index CPMKTLDN
• The Capital Markets Banker’s Acceptance Index CPMKTLBA
• The Capital Markets Short Term US Treasury Bond & Note Index CPMKTLTBO
• The Capital Markets Short Term US Federal Agency Index CPMKTLTA
• The Capital Markets Short Term US Corporate Investment Grade Bond Index CPMKTLCBO

Goldman Monopoly

GTM’s (prior story) on how the tri-party repo system works is critical to understand. Since many of the banks funding that system are gone, or incapable of funding, one big shark is left in the lagoon–Goldman Sachs. How do you trade a market when a single entity controls a large and growing share of the daily volume? Goldman Sachs is running about one out of every ten trades on the NYSE.

The FINANCIAL — The New York Stock Exchange, a subsidiary of NYSE Euronext (NYX), on April 9 released its weekly program-trading data submitted by its member firms. The report includes trading in all markets as reported to the NYSE for Mar. 30-Apr. 3.

The data indicated that during Mar. 30-Apr. 3, program trading amounted to 32.6 percent of NYSE average daily volume of 3,343.7 million shares, or 1,089.0 million program shares traded per day.

“Program trading encompasses a wide range of portfolio-trading strategies involving the purchase or sale of a basket of at least 15 stocks,” NYSE reports.

In all markets, program trading by member firms averaged 3,389.9 million shares a day during Mar. 30-Apr. 3. About 32.1 percent of program trading took place on the NYSE, 0.8 percent in non-U.S. markets and 67.1 percent in other domestic markets, including Nasdaq, NYSE Amex and regional markets.

Goldman Sachs is one of 15 major program trading participants. This is one of many examples of GS increasing their stake in a shrinking space. Their principal program purchases of 850 million shares representing 81% of all traded shares, more than half of all NYSE reporting firms principal trades. Program trading accounts for 33% of all NYSE daily volume, and GS runs 30% of those trades.

Dark Pools and Iceberg Orders

That was just Goldman’s share of program trades on a regulated exchange, which doesn’t reflect the vast unregulated market. Dark pools have roughly 10% of all shares traded in the US cash equities market. Dark pools are not public markets. It’s a method to match trades outside of the public eye, and also do what would be illegal transactions in a regulated market. They can be used to reduce market impact when trading large orders. Dark pools of liquidity became very popular prior to the 2007 market top. Firms with buy ratings on stock XYZ could dump shares with little impact. Imagine how important they are today in an illiquid market. Dark pools are also used to game the public market. Trades like iceberg orders can show a 10,000 block sale as a 100 block print.  Read about the basics here.

Guess what bank holds the #1 spot in the dark pool arena? Goldman Sachs and their Sigma X pool, which transacted 156.3 million shares in February 2009. All the dark pool numbers in this data are single-counted. Morgan Stanley recently complained about market participants overestimating dark pool volumes–not so. February had a record number of dark pool transactions. This makes sense in a less than liquid public market doesn’t it. Of that record volume GS controls 15% of it. More evidence of Goldman Sachs having monopoly advantage in a wounded illiquid market. Predators like Goldman need equally skilled competitors to maintain balance of the system. Last summer GTM suggested this might happen (see story). The “crash the market to monopolize it theory” holds more water now.

Where Reality Sinks

As of last December, there is $1,400T (yes that’s quadrillion) sitting in interest rate swaps, mostly split between N. America ($775T) and Europe ($555T). This OTC market dwarfs the cash equities market. It’s hard finding exact global market figures, but NYSE Euronext is $31T. They move more than one third of global stock volume. The regulated U.S. stock market is roughly 2% of the size of the unregulated global derivatives market.

The picture is a decent representation of just how massive the unregulated derivatives market is.  It is not properly scaled for 2009, which is more akin to the Titanic next to a dingy.  Not only is this market massive, it has been growing at a reckless pace, is highly leveraged (over 400:1 in many cases), and is extremely complex.  Critics say the total 2008 derivatives markets value of $1,566,655 billion is misleading, because the number is notional.  Meaning it isn’t real money, but credit agreements between two parties where the principal is never exchanged.  Wasn’t that what AIG was doing in a perfectly safe manner?

Can we also assume a good chunk of those swaps are waiting for the Fed to raise rates? If this is true, we’re in a very precarious situation. On one hand the Fed has to print money until the end of days, and on the other roughly 75% of the world’s total liquidity is trading swaps on the rates. Note: This is a rough educated guess based on BIS numbers.

Some of the big boys in derivatives are using it to play catchup in lieu of their massive recent losses in equities.  The risky trades AIG was doing are still going on. And they’re being placed at an accelerated rate. Some are looking for a slam dunk when rates go back up.  That is not a guarantee and there is a ridiculous amount of levered credit expecting this to happen.

Also, the tri-party repo system has broken down. This might be the prime reason of lower intraday stock market volume, and what appears to be institutional abandonment of index ETFs like DIA/SPY/Qs.  The main entities which loaned money for margin trading, like JP Morgan, are in collections mode. It’s possible the Fed has run out of capital or the need to fund temporary open market operations. These funds are often used to trade index futures. The lack of TOMO activity this year is very curious. The PPT might be fundamentally ineffective for now. Then again they are not necessary during stock rallies. Time will tell.

Life Boats and End Times

Read Deepcaster’s summary of the shadow banking system for new doors to open and explore. You will be in shock. Seeing the actual numbers is madness. JP Morgan had $91 trillion in derivatives as of Sept. 2007. What do they have now after taking on Bear Sterns, which was naked shorted into oblivion before they could offload much of anything.

Each American household owes $455,000 on the U.S. National debt of $53T (pre-TARP). What’s the math on $1.5Q divided into massive global job loss, rampant inflation, and a doubling of the money supply every four years? How does a system that functions purely off the backs of debt slaves work when the slaves stop earning or can’t pay their debts? This feels like a mega tsunami is just offshore. And the guy who works the monitoring station got hit by a bus.

The financial industry is fundamentally doomed. Anticipate a large scale event that uses shock doctrine to control and manipulate people’s minds. Since WW II the ability to master groups and make them susceptible to brainwashing has been perfected. A massive bank collapse could be the catalytic event used to marginalize and control societies in a new direction.

Part 2 Thoughts

Last week John Stewart interviewed Elizabeth Warren. She is the Harvard Law professor (and bankruptcy expert) who chairs the Congressional Oversight Panel for TARP. Stewart asked, “So in your mind the banks don’t see this as a come to Jesus moment?” Watch the show and maybe you’ll be curious about when that day will come.

The next installment in this line will cover the Fed and their manipulation of “free market” liquidity. We’ll explore TOMO/POMO funding, gold manipulation, and PPT charts. There is a way to use TOMO data to go back in SPY volume and say, “See! This is where they pumped money into the market.” It is very time consuming, but it will be done.

Sources:
Greece on the Verge of Bankruptcy
By Manfred Ertel
BusinessWeek April 7, 2009
Why Some Dark Pools Are Increasing Their Volumes
By Nina Mehta
Traders Magazine March 13, 2009
OCC’s Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities
Fourth Quarter 2008
Market Intervention, Data Manipulation Still Accelerating
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1214722800.php
http://www.finchannel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=34403&Itemid=2
http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qa0903.pdf#page=108
http://www.nyse.com/pdfs/PT041609.pdf

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. -Sir Winston Churchill at Lord Mayor’s Luncheon following the victory at El Alamein in North Africa, London, 10 November 1942

In today’s spin doctored media maelstrom can China be more truthful than the United States? The following will uncover some reasons why CBS, Bernanke, the Fed, and other members of the power Elite are lying to you. We will then explore the mechanics of how a total Fed collapse can happen. And we’ll end with a review of how a stronger police state is being formed.

Official speeches to assure investors and prop up the markets have routinely come ahead of financial disasters. In January of 2008 Bush said the economy was “strong and solid.” That was the worst January open the Dow ever saw (see story). The same thing happened this last January with a hope filled new administration, and a new worst opening–ever. Here is part four of: Our Engineered Market Meltdown.

Notice the Timing

The timing of events during the last several days should be frightening, but the message in the U.S. is, “Don’t worry, be happy!” Do not underestimate the power of what China has said. This is unprecedented:

President Obama and his new government have adopted a series of measures to deal with the financial crisis. We have expectations as to the effects of these measures. We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried. -Wen Jiabao 03/13/09

On Friday China questions the “full faith” of the U.S. dollar. What this means is they will not bail out the U.S. with non-stop purchasing of Treasuries, the blood of the financial body.

The Chinese prime minister, Wen Jiabao, spoke in unusually blunt terms on Friday about the “safety” of China’s $1 trillion investment in American government debt, the world’s largest such holding, and urged the Obama administration to offer assurances that the securities would maintain their value. (NY Times)

On Sunday Bernanke does the first national interview a Federal Reserve chairman has ever done in 96 years. He says everything is fine and we’ll be back to business as usual by the end of the year. Then on Wednesday the Fed announces they will buy Treasuries until the end of days. So…

1. China warns about the financial stability of the U.S.
2. Bernanke goes on national television
3. Says he’s from Main Street, just like you and me
4. Then boldly lies about the economy

Three days later…

• FOMC announces a final push of a desperate crisis management plan
• U.S. dollar sees its 3rd biggest one-day decline ever
• Fed is now matching all of China’s $1 trillion in Treasuries

CBS: A Tool of the Elite

What 60 Minutes did with Ben Bernanke is upsetting. It’s the same tactic that was used with Hank Paulson on Frontline. These are shill journalism puff pieces hero worshiping the architects of financial Armageddon.

A shill is an associate of a person selling goods or services or a political group, who pretends no association to the seller/group and assumes the air of an enthusiastic customer. The intention of the shill is, using crowd psychology, to encourage others unaware of the set-up to purchase said goods or services or support the political group’s ideological claims. Shills are often employed by confidence artists. The term plant is also used.

Dan Rather had been with CBS for decades and was one of the most familiar faces in American journalism. He refused to be a shill and was working on exposing G.W. Bush.

Eight weeks before the 2004 presidential poll, Rather broadcast a story based on newly discovered documents which appeared to show that Bush, whose service in the Texas Air National Guard ensured that he did not have to fight in Vietnam, had barely turned up even for basic duty. (Guardian UK)

He was fired by the network the day after the 2004 election. The war quietly went on and media criticism of Bush dropped. Now that his administration is gone Rather is suing CBS for $70M. This is a prime example of how compromised the national media is. Do not expect the truth from them.

What needs to be understood is we are seeing the mask of the system having peeled back. The reality is ugly, evil, and incomprehensible to the average citizen. AIG employees recently received a security memo warning them not to identify themselves to the public. So what do the Elite do? They humanize deceit and try to paint collusion as incompetence. They want the public to mistake strategy for incompetence. None of this is accidental. It has been planned for years. This crash was engineered and won’t end until it’s end game time. The end game is a new global banking monopoly.

What Fascism Looks Like Today

It’s a simple theme. Crash the market then monopolize it. Argentina was forced into selling their sovereign natural resources to international corporations at mafia discount prices. The U.S. is now selling its financial sovereign resources at mafia discount prices. Don’t think so? Paulson and Bernanke forced the remaining major banks to sign off on a fascist takeover of the country’s largest independent banks. From Frontline’s Inside the Meltdown:

NARRATOR: Then on Sunday, October 12th, something extraordinary. Paulson personally called the CEOs of the nation’s nine largest banks and told them to come to his office the next day at the Treasury building. Sheila Bair from the FDIC was there.

NARRATOR: The nine CEOs sat in alphabetical order across the table from Paulson and Bernanke.

JON HILSENRATH: You have Wells Fargo all the way at the end and you have Bank of America more towards another end. And you have, basically, the icons of Wall Street who are showing up.

NARRATOR: Paulson said the entire banking system was in deep trouble.

SHEILA BAIR: It was serious. It was somber. And the government did most of the talking.

JON HILSENRATH: It was made clear to these nine very powerful CEOs when they sat down at the table that this wasn’t a negotiation.

NARRATOR: Paulson hoped one bold act would boost the nation’s confidence in the banks and get them lending again, a direct infusion of cash.

MARK LANDLER: And then he basically came out and said it: “We want to take a stake in the largest banks in the country.”

NARRATOR: Paulson and Bernanke were offering each of the banks tens of billions. The government would become a major stockholder.

MARK LANDLER: And that then set off a pretty lively discussion.

DAVID FABER: Some of them were, like, “I don’t want the money.” But it was, like, “You’re taking the money.”

SHEILA BAIR: The government was very assertive. Treasury was very assertive on why the program was there, why they needed to take it with all the conditions.

DAVID FABER: “Here’s the plan. Here’s what we’re doing. Here’s what we need you to do. You’ll get the money in a few weeks.”

NARRATOR: Paulson gave each man a single piece of paper spelling out the conditions.

MARK LANDLER: Before they had to leave town that night, they were told, “Return this document with your signature on it.” And all nine of them did so.

NARRATOR: Paulson would spend $125 billion that day. Moral hazard was a thing of the past.

Bernanke Buys Bonds

Don’t forget that the Federal Reserve System is a private central bank. They are not the government and they do not represent American citizens. In fact they own the government’s ability to make currency. And they own you and me. It’s called debt slavery. The more debt they loan the more power they have. However, there is a major flaw in this fiat money system. To prevent a total collapse of the system the Fed is now purchasing debt on a massive scale. Depressions end when debt is finalized. The majority of debt hasn’t been wiped out, but transferred to central banks. Can an economy grow when a central bank controls the country’s GDP?

From David A. Rosenberg, BofA/MER’s North American Economist (a great read):

So, as the Fed’s balance sheet now expands to represent nearly 25% of GDP, we no longer have to ask the question as to whether or not we are just like Japan, for that is what the BoJ balance sheet looked like after the central bank embarked on its quantitative easing program nearly a decade ago.

The additional $1.15 trillion in announced purchases is likely to boost the balance sheet well in excess of $3 trillion, especially if you also include the recently expanded TALF program size of $1 trillion (there is also talk that the Fed is going to expand the TALF program to include distressed assets – in the press statement, it did say “the range of eligible collateral for this facility is likely to be expanded …”).

For the traders who watch DIA, SPY, and QQQQ there is a telling lack of volume in the recent rally. There appears to be an abandonment of index ETFs by major institutions. This seems to make sense with the Fed supporting bonds over equities.

How Shadow Banking Works

Many people have been fascinated by GTM’s story on How to Trade a PPT Day. One of the sticking points is where the money comes from to push the markets up so violently. The following is an amazing explanation of PPT mechanics. Understanding this will help you understand why the Fed is in trouble.

These are excerpts from The Federal Reserve is Bankrupt by Matthias Chang, former Political Secretary to the Prime Minister of Malaysia:

The repo market is the market whereby all financial institutions (regulated and unregulated) invariably go to obtain financing to meet reserve requirements, bridging finance, to lend or purchase securities, to hedge and or to invest on short-term basis.

It used to be that mainly US Treasuries (bear this in mind at all times) were used as security for Repo transactions, as it is considered as most secure i.e. as good as cash since it is backed by the credit of the US government!

This requirement is no longer the case. More of this issue later.

A deliver-out repurchase agreement is where securities are delivered to the cash lender for custody in exchange for cash.

A tri-party repurchase agreement is similar to a deliver-out repurchase agreement, except that the security is placed in the custody of a third-party entity. The third-party ensures that the security meets the cash lender’s requirements and provides valuation and margining services. This is the primary form of repurchase agreement for securities dealers in the United States. Bank of New York and JP Morgan Chase are the two main custodians or clearing banks in the US and supervise the vast majority of the tri-party repos. Bear this in mind at all times.

Okay, one quick note here. Lehman Brothers used JP Morgan for tri-party repos. Two weeks before their collapse JP Morgan issued a $5 billion collateral call on Lehman, who stalled for time. The next week JPM demanded a $5 billion all cash redemption from LEH. Between Sept 11-12th Lehman refunded $8 billion in cash. On September 15th they were out of business. (see Gasparino, Charles. “Losing Lehman.”Trader Monthly, Nov/Dec 2008.)

Repos can be of any duration but are most commonly over-night loans. Repos longer than over-night are called Term Repos. There are also Open Repos which are transactions which can be terminated by both parties on a day’s notice.

The largest players of repos and reverses are the dealers in government securities. There are about 20 primary dealers recognized by the Fed which are authorized to bid for new-issued treasury securities for resale in the market. The dealers are highly leveraged, 50 to 100 times their own capital. To finance the purchase of treasury securities, the dealers need to have repo monies in large amounts on a continuing basis. The institutions that supply such huge funds in the repo market are money funds, large corporations, state and local governments and foreign central banks.

How the Final Crash Might Happen

A killer tidal wave in the Atlantic is possible, but what Matthias Chang suggest will have a similar effect:

Recall that I had mentioned earlier that Federal Bank of New York and JP Morgan Chase were the primary clearing banks for repos.

The banks’ quarterly financial reports show that as of Dec. 31:

• J.P. Morgan had potential current derivatives losses of $241.2 billion, outstripping its $144 billion in reserves, and future exposure of $299 billion.
• Citibank had potential current losses of $140.3 billion, exceeding its $108 billion in reserves, and future losses of $161.2 billion.
• Bank of America reported $80.4 billion in current exposure, below its $122.4 billion reserve, but $218 billion in total exposure.
• HSBC Bank USA had current potential losses of $62 billion, more than triple its reserves, and potential total exposure of $95 billion.

• Wells Fargo, which agreed to take over Charlotte-based Wachovia in October, reported current potential losses totaling nearly $64 billion, below the banks’ combined reserves of $104 billion, but total future risks of about $109 billion.

The Fed’s rescue of Bear Stearns through JP Morgan was not so much to save the former but rather to shore up the “clearing system” of the repos for which JP Morgan Chase and the Bank of New York were the main pillars. One of the functions of a “clearing bank” for repos is to value and match securities tendered for cash borrowings. If Bear Stearns securities are now valued as junks, the integrity of JP Morgan and Federal Bank of New York as clearing banks in this market is as good as zero! And bearing in mind that the five major investment banks in the US rely heavily on the repo market for their funding, any gridlock in this part of the shadow banking system would tear wide open the entire banking system, including the traditional counter-part.

Hence, the FED intervention by the creation of the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) which was in effect the backstop for all investment banking using tri-party repos!

This was what Bernanke said:

We have been working with market participants to develop a contingency plan should there ever occur a loss of confidence in either of the two clearing banks that facilitate the settlement of tri-party repos.

The inherent weakness of tri-party repos is that the counter-party risks of billions worth of funding agreements are shouldered by essentially two players – Federal Bank of New York and JP Morgan Chase.

1. Panic swept across the entire repo market.
2. No securities were considered safe enough for repos except US treasuries.
3. Fundings in the repo market grind to a halt.
4. Market players withdrew funds and began hoarding treasuries.
5. The rest who own structured products were slaughtered.

As has been observed, the Fed intervened aggressively to check the run on the repo market. Various measures were taken, but in my view the most dangerous was the widening of the collaterals which the Fed was willing to accept to secure funding of the players in the repo market. The Fed also intervened by lending a huge chunk of its US treasuries in exchange for junks to facilitate credit expansion.

In the result, what happened was that the Fed’s present balance sheet of approximately $2 trillion is made up mostly of junk securities.

The Fed is no different from banks in that confidence in the quality of its assets is critical and that if and when the market recovers, there is in fact a market for the junk assets that it took on to unravel the gridlock in the financial markets.

Remember Bernanke has stated numerous times the financial system depends on confidence of the participants. China loudly stated their lack of confidence last week.

When Joe Six-Packs realizes that the Federal Reserve Note is not even secured by US treasuries and or the FED has real tangible assets, but its balance sheet is littered with junks and toxic waste, there will be a run on the Fed i.e. when Americans and foreigners no longer have faith in the Federal Reserve Notes as “money”.

Nouriel Roubini declared:

The process of socializing the private losses from this crisis has already moved many liabilities of the private sector onto the books of the sovereign. At some point a sovereign bank may crack, in which case the ability of the government to credibly commit to act as a backstop for the financial system – including deposit guarantees – could come unglued.

In my opinion, the Fed has already become “unglued”. Whatever guarantees given to secure the indebtedness of CitiGroup and others to prevent a run on these banks are useless.

What Will the End Game Look Like?

Minnesota National Guard Soldiers with the 1st Combined Arms Battalion, 194th Armor stand guard to assist police in maintaining order during demonstration Sept. 1, in St. Paul, Minn. The demonstrators were protesting during day one of the Republican National Convention. (Photo: Master Sgt. Edwin Holt)

David Rockefeller, Jr. and his contemporaries at the Bilderberg, Council on Foreign Relations, and Trilateral Commission want to see their global banking monopoly solidify before they die. These are internationalists working to destroy nation-state identity. The daily operations of these groups is to marginalize all threats against the power Elite.

In 2002 David Rockefeller, Sr. authored his autobiography Memoirs and states:

For more than a century ideological extremists at either end of the political spectrum have seized upon well-publicized incidents such as my encounter with Castro to attack the Rockefeller family for the inordinate influence they claim we wield over American political and economic institutions. Some even believe we are part of a secret cabal working against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as “internationalists” and of conspiring with others around the world to build a more integrated global political and economic structure – one world, if you will. If that’s the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it.

And what they’ve been working on has been taking too long to materialize. Therefore expect a large 9/11 type catalytic event that will use shock doctrine to force compliance. Failure of any of the key central banks would also bring this about.

We will probably see the emergence of a stronger police state in the U.S. if their propaganda methods, like using Bernanke on CBS, continue to fail. We already saw mass arrests made during the RNC and DNC. And we’ve seen wave after wave of protests moving west out of Eastern Europe. Some people look at this as class warfare between the Haves and the Have-Nots. It is possible their accelerated plans will cause a new Sons of Liberty movement in the U.S. where a power struggle between an enlightened citizenry and the corrupt will take place. The reality is Earth has finite resources with exponential population growth. Something inevitably has to give under the current scarcity based system.

The United States House of Representatives has met in closed session seven times since 1825. The most recent closed session was held on March 13th of 2008 to discuss classified details of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Program during debate on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 Amendments Act of 2008.

Rumors leaked from that session warn of civil unrest, financial collapse, and protective measures for members of Congress. Several members have since spoken out against bully tactics and threats used by Paulson. He warned members of Congress that if the bailout bill wasn’t passed the U.S. would face total economic collapse and civil riots.

Another current issue to understand is the move to change the Posse Comitatus Act. After the U.S. Civil War it was illegal for the federal government to use the military for law enforcement. This stems from the British occupation and garrisoning of troops in civilian homes during the American Revolutionary War. After the LA Riots and Hurricane Katrina there have been power struggles to allow the U.S. Military to act as law enforcement on domestic soil. These have been thwarted, but there is a new concerning development. From the Army Times:

Beginning Oct. 1 for 12 months, the 1st BCT will be under the day-to-day control of U.S. Army North, the Army service component of Northern Command, as an on-call federal response force for natural or manmade emergencies and disasters, including terrorist attacks.

But this new mission marks the first time an active unit has been given a dedicated assignment to NorthCom, a joint command established in 2002 to provide command and control for federal homeland defense efforts and coordinate defense support of civil authorities.

They may be called upon to help with civil unrest and crowd control or to deal with potentially horrific scenarios such as massive poisoning and chaos in response to a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear or high-yield explosive, or CBRNE, attack.

From the ACLU on the U.S. Army’s domestic deployment:

Well, you need to start with the Posse Comitatus Act, enacted in 1878 and it actually makes it a crime for the military to perform civilian functions within the country, unless there’s an explicit act of Congress.

As they say, it’s a slippery slope, and once you start going down the path of having the military deployed in the U.S. it gets harder to draw the limit. And again, it’s not the military, it’s the way that the military might be used by people to avoid certain protections, and certain civil liberties — for example, crowd control is an example how this could be used — how it could be wielded in ways that are dangerous, and that’s why it’s important to, before you take any step, so we know what the threat is, because it’s hard to go back once the line has been eroded.

This line of thinking might seem paranoid, and sure that could be the case. However, these are very real possibilities. The global financial system is closer than it’s ever been to a system wide collapse. For investors it’s probably wise to heed the grey line in Picture of the Year.

Sources:

China’s Leader Says He Is ‘Worried’ Over U.S. Treasuries
The New York Times March 13, 2009
CBS newsman’s $70m lawsuit likely to deal Bush legacy a new blow
The Observer, Sunday 28 December 2008
Ben Bernanke’s Greatest Challenge
Fed Chairman Discusses Recession, Financial Rescues And Recovery In Wide-Ranging 60 Minutes Interview
March 15, 2009
The Federal Reserve is Bankrupt
How Did It Happen and What are the Ugly Consequences?
by Matthias Chang
ACLU on the U.S. Army’s domestic deployment
Monday Oct. 27, 2008
As America Collapses US Government Secret Plans Revealed
Posted by indglass on May 21, 2008
BofA CEO Lewis: Bank Will Not Need More TARP Funds
By: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor | 06 Feb 2009
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/paulson-meet-us-bank-heads/story.aspx?guid={C3A179AE-940F-44DB-B3E5-434EFC87D1EA}
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meltdown/etc/script.html
https://www.gpcresearch.ml.wallst.com/common/emaillink/pdf.asp?SSS_33E1CD86723A60F4C774F41FC5F2027E&pdf=pdf/Bernanke_buys_bonds.pdf
David A. Rosenberg
Brigade homeland tours start Oct. 1
Army Times, Sep 30, 2008